Last Updated: Sunday, December 25, 2016

100% chance of an earthquake today but better luck next time for Nepal!


December 25, 2016: This post has been written to notify about the 100% chance of an earthquake today. Yes, you heard it right! We received several messages asking of possible earthquakes to be occurred on a particular date. As always, we give same answers; sorry no earthquake can be predicted with 100% accuracy for a definite place at definite time.

Now, a rumor has spread of an earthquake to be occurred in Nepal on the day of Christmas, December 25, 2016. There's a 100 percent chance of an earthquake today somewhere in the world. But no one can predicted a particular location with accurate time; not even in Nepal.

The news of an earthquake was widely shared in Facebook after it was published on an earthquake prediction site (www.earthquakepredict.com) on December 14, 2016. 

Five different dates were predicted for possible earthquake in Nepal starting from December 16 to December 25, 2016 with possible locations.

Proposed Dates

16th Dec  (27.49N 85.07E)
18th Dec  (27.32N, 85.22E)
20th Dec (28.02N, 85.3E)
22nd Dec (27.5N, 85.5E)
25th Dec  (26.25N, 85.5E)

How true is this?

If we take four first dates, the news has already been falsified. Nepal Seismological Center hasn't recorded any event during the time. Infact, the last felt earthquake with magnitude 4 and greater in Nepal was on November 28, 2016 of magnitude 5.6 near the border of Ramechhap and Solukhumbu district.

On 16th December, an earthquake was predicted near Bhaise, Hetauda. Another earthquake was predicted near Faparbari, Makwanpur on December 18, 2016. Third seismic event was predicted for Yarsa, Langtan National Park. On December 22, an earthquake was predicted near Panauti. But no single event was recorded in any of the given date. Now, they have predicted an earthquake less than 5 magnitude for today, December 25, 2016. 

Regarding the today's prediction, after analyzing the given coordinates of the epicenter, we found that it lies in India not Nepal. The website is predicting an earthquake near Muzaffarpur. But no need to panic, it's just a prediction.

Can earthquake be predicted?

According to the United States Geological Survey (USGS), "Stating that an earthquake is going to occur today is not really predicting earthquakes. To date, they cannot be predicted. But anyone, on any day, could make this statement and it would be true." 

Earthquake prediction may some day become a reality, but only after much more is learned about earthquakes. Meanwhile, you may have heard different rumors. Some turns to be co-incidentally correct. But not every time. Please don't run behind the rumors!