Tuesday, February 28, 2012

Tropical Storm Irina Claims 73 Lives

Disaster Report: Tropical storm IRINA-12 Is Currently Active IN Mozambique. Up to 470000 people people can be affected by wind speeds of cyclone strength or above.

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Related Post:Tracking Cyclone Giovanna (Mauritius+Madagascar+Mozambique)

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Table showing 24-hour rainfall values for
Saturday (03/03/2012) and Sunday (04/03/2012)

UPDATE
-Following the national office of risks and disasters management (BNGRC), tropical storms (Irina + Giovanna) has killed at least 111 people and left 332,204 people homeless in Madagascar.
-The highest number of deaths recorded after the passage of Irina was in Ifanadiana district in the southeast of the island country with 48 death tolls, while Vangaindrano and Farafangana districts, also in the southeast, recorded the most homeless with respectively 3,909 and 25,086.
-Nearly 7,056 housing spaces were flooded, 147 were damaged and 1,372 were completely destroyed by Irina.


UPDATE March 9
Tropical storm Irina is currently in Indian Ocean. By early tomorrow, it is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression (lowest level).

UPDATE
Main roads in Madagascar have been reopened

UPDATE March 7
-Death toll has risen to 73
-21,235 people homeless, a total of 67,911 people affected
-Most fatalities due to mudslide in Ifanadiana

UPDATE
-Death toll remains at 65 out of which 47 killed due to landslides in
Ifanadiana
-The storm continues to move south along the coast of South Africa

-In Madagascar, it is the second deadliest storm of the season, with Giovanna's 35 dead, 284 injured and nearly 250,000 homeless


You may also like: Tropical storm Beryl

UPDATE 05:41 UTC

Current warnings
Very rough seas with wave heights between 4 and 6m is expected north of Richards Bay. Similar warning is issued between Plettenberg Bay and Port Alfred

UPDATE March 6
-65 killed by tropical storm Irina, the worse hit Ifanadiana district in the southeast of the island

-Beaches closed in Durban after the waves reached a height of three metres

”Cyclone_irina_tracking_map”

UPDATE March 5
Tropical cyclone (tc) 14s, (irina), located approximately 315 nm south-southeast of Maputo, Mozambique, has tracked southeastward at 07 knots over the past six hours. Animated multispectral satellite imagery shows the majority of deep convection is located with the southern half of the system as a region of subsidence to the north is impinging convection in the northwestern quadrant. The low level circulation center (LLCC) remains well vented to the southeast along the leading edge of the trough. The current intensity is based on the average of Dvorak estimates from pgtw, knes, and fmee. As the trough continues tracking eastward, a subtropical ridge rebuilds over southern Africa, becoming the dominant steering mechanism, guiding tc 14s back towards the coast of southern Mozambique. The intensity will peak over the next 24 hours associated with the improved poleward outflow being supported by the transitory mid- latitude trough. As the trough continues eastward, diminishing poleward outflow will lead to a slow weakening trend beyond tau 24. Upwelling near the coast and the eventual landfall frictional effects will cause tc 14s to dissipate

UPDATE
Aside is the Footage of Durban's beachfront during tropical cyclone Irina on Sunday 4th March 2012



UPDATE
-By Sunday (March 4) Tropical Storm Irina will cause heavy rain and high winds over Inhambane town and surrounding areas


UPDATE 10:39 UTC
Current warnings
-Heavy rainfall (> 50mm per day) is expected from Saturday over the Lowveld and Escarpment areas of Limpopo and Mpumalanga and continuing into Monday.
-Extremely uncomfortable, humid conditions are expected in the eastern parts of the province. Heavy rainfall ( > 50 to 100mm per day) is expected from Saturday over Northern Kwazulu-Natal continuing into Tuesday


UPDATE March 3
-Tropical cyclone (tc) 14s (irina)
has left Madagascar heading towards Swaziland,located approximately 595 nm east-northeast of Maputo, Mozambique. Maputo, known as Lourenço Marques before independence, is the capital and largest city of Mozambique. It is estimated that 80% of the city's population live in slums without running water or electricity, but the city has little money to invest in infrastructure
-Another Tropical depression (Joni) is formed in the open Sea. It can threaten Rodrigues Islands by next week.
Rodrigues Islands is the smallest of the Mascarene Islands and a dependency of Mauritius.

UPDATE
Though Irina made multiple Landfalls Over Madagascar. NO INJURY OR SERIOUS DAMAGE REPORTED 

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UPDATE
The new tracking map (aside) clearly shows the deviated path of cyclone IRINA. Earlier it was forecast to hit Mozambique with category 1 storm. The new tracking image shows it heading towards Madagascar Island.The island was recently hit by deadly cyclone Giovanna. GDACS has issued Red Tropical Cyclone alert in Mozambique for IRINA-12 from 29/02/2012 12:00 to 01/03/2012 12:00

UPDATE

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.8m in Ankirijibe, Madagascar. This height will be reached 028:00 hours after the start of the event.
Affected Country: Mozambique (Inhambane) (1349366), Mozambique (Gaza) (1316647)
There is chance of flash flood in Juan De Nova I. The hourly rain rate is forecast between 17 and 25 mm/h.

UPDATE
Tropical storm Irina is forecast to strike Madagascar as a tropical cyclone at about 12:00 GMT today
Data supplied by the US Navy and Air Force Joint Typhoon Warning Center suggest that the point of landfall will be near 18.7 S, 43.2 E. Irina is expected to bring 1-minute maximum sustained winds to the region of around 129 km/h (80 mph). Wind gusts in the area may be considerably higher.

 

UPDATE
Currently IRINA is a Tropical cyclone (cat 1). By early tomorrow, it is forecast to strengthen to cat 2 cyclone

UPDATE March 1

Tropical cyclone (tc) 14s (irina), located approximately 225 nm west-northwest of Antananarivo, Madagascar, has tracked south-southwestward at 04 knots over the past six hours. Animated infrared satellite imagery depicts a rapidly consolidating system with tightly-curved deep convective banding. Tc 14s has intensified rapidly over the past 12 hours, increasing from 35 knots to 60 knots. The current intensity is based on an average of Dvorak current intensity estimates ranging from 55 (knes/fmee) to 65 (pgtw) knots. There is poor confidence in the current position due to the lack of microwave imagery and the central dense overcast obscuring the center. Tc 14s is tracking southward along the western periphery of a deep subtropical steering ridge but is forecast to turn westward as an extension of the subtropical ridge builds to the south of the system. Dynamic model guidance is in good agreement until after tau 96 when there is increasing uncertainty due to an approaching deep midlatitude short-wave trough. This forecast is
positioned close to the model consensus and indicates a significant decrease in track speeds in the extended Taus. Tc 14s is expected to intensify to a peak intensity of 90 knots by tau 36 due to favorable environmental conditions. Maximum significant wave height at 010000z
is 16 feet

”IRINA_tracking_map”
Storm surge animation; Source JRC

Tropical Storm IRINA-12
is currently active in Mozambique. GDACS has issued ORANGE ALERT for Mozambique. Up to 470000 people people can be affected by wind speeds of cyclone strength or above. In addition, 13000 people people are living in coastal areas below 5m and can therefore be affected by storm surge.
The ALERT is currently for Inhambane region of Mozambique.
By March 3, 2012, IRINA is forecast again to strengthen to Category 1 (Hurricane). Around 810000 people will be affected at that time.
Irina was already expected to gain more power as it moves across the warm waters of the Mozambique Channel.

On February 26, RSMC La Reunion upgraded the system to Moderate Tropical Storm Irina as it continued to intensify. However, it made landfall on Northern Madagascar a few hours later and weakened into an overland depression. Early on February 28, Irina emerged off the western coast of Madagascar, and began to reorganize. Shortly afterwards, Irina made landfall a second time on Madagascar, this time at Northwest Madagascar. Afterwards, Irina emerged into the Indian Ocean again, and began to reorganize source wikipedia
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2 comments:

  1. This is what South African Weather Service forecast
    partly cloudy at first along the south coast where it will be warm, otherwise fine and hot but extremely hot in places in the west coast district. the wind along the coast will be light to moderate south-easterly, becoming south-westerly along the west coast. expected uvb index: none.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Tracking Info For Tropical Cyclone Irina

    Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Storm type
    -------------------------------------------------------------
    00 GMT 02/29/12 16.2S 43.4E 40 Tropical Storm
    12 GMT 02/29/12 16S 42.7E 40 Tropical Storm
    00 GMT 03/01/12 17S 43.6E 70 Tropical Storm
    12 GMT 03/01/12 19.7S 43.7E 65 Tropical Storm
    00 GMT 03/02/12 22S 42.4E 65 Tropical Storm
    12 GMT 03/02/12 24.3S 40.2E 60 Tropical Storm

    ReplyDelete

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