Last Updated: Monday, August 20, 2012

Typhoon Tembin Trajectory: A detail coverage


Disaster Report: Early on August 20, both the JMA and the JTWC upgraded Tembin to a typhoon.
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Original post: Natural Disasters List August 20, 2012
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Another tropical storm Bolaven is also situated east of Tembin and moving at a speed of 16 kph in a northwesterly direction toward Taiwan.
Update 2012/08/23; 05:30 UTC
As of 10 a.m.(Taiwan local time), Tembin was located 250 km east of Taitung County in eastern Taiwan, moving at a speed of 6 kph in a westerly direction.
Around 2,000 people evacuated from coastal area of Taiwan.
According to Hong Kong Observatory, Tembin has intensified to a "severe typhoon" and is forecast to move slowly west or west-northwest over the next 24 hours.
A total of about 50,000 soldiers are on standby for rescue operations.
So far 103 domestic fights and 13 international flights have been cancelled due to the Typhoon Tembin.
Another tropical storm Bolaven is also situated east of Tembin and moving at a speed of 16 kph in a northwesterly direction toward Taiwan.
Update 2012/08/22; 10:05 UTC
As of 12 p.m.(Taiwan local time), Tembin was located 330 kilometers east of Taitung, moving at a speed of 9 km per hour in a west-northwesterly direction.
The Central Weather Bureau of Taiwan issued a land warning for Typhoon Tembin early Wednesday.
The typhoon is expected to make landfall in eastern Taiwan on Thursday.
Update 14:50 UTC
As of 5 p.m. (Taiwan local time), Tembin was located 460 km east of Eluanbi.
Taiwan Weather Bureau has issued a sea warning for Typhoon Tembin and predicted that the strong winds and heavy rains would be felt in eastern Taiwan late today.
Residents of Yilan, Hualien and Taitung counties on the eastern coast  are at high alert as the typhoon is forecast to make landfall in one of those three counties. A land warning is expected to be issued by Wednesday noon.
Update 2012/08/21; 01:00 UTC
The death toll remained at one as of Tuesday morning—Michael Estacio, who was carried by a strong current of water.
In its 5 a.m. advisory, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration said Typhoon Tembin (Igme) was estimated to be 380 kilometers east of Aparri, Cagayan as of 4 a.m.
Cagayan, Calayan Islands, Babuyan Islands, and Batanes Islands were placed under Storm Signal No. 1.
Update 14:50 UTC
At 10:00 p.m. today (Philippines local time), 20 August 2012, the center of Typhoon Tembin (IGME) was located based on satellite and surface data at 330 km East of Aparri, Cagayan.
The heavy rain caused landslides in Philippines that damaged eight major highways. An average of 20 tropical storms or typhoons hit the Philippines each year.
Forecast Positions: Typhoon Tembin is expected to be at 300 km East Northeast of Basco, Batanes by tomorrow evening. By Wednesday evening, it will be at 370 km North Northeast of Basco, Batanes and by Thursday evening, it is expected to be at 500 km North Northwest of Basco, Batanes.
Current warning: Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the Eastern Seaboards of Central and Southern Luzon due to big waves caused by Typhoon “Tembin” and the Southwest Monsoon.
Update 09:05 UTC
Philippines weather update: Light to moderate rainfall over some portions of Surigao and Agusan Del Sur and Compostela Valley.
Expect Thunderstorms with moderate to heavy rains over San Isidro, Calubian and Ormoc within an hour.
Update 08:34 UTC
At 08:00 UTC, the center of Typhoon Tembin was estimated based on satellite and surface data at 310 km East of Aparri, Cagayan. Following PAGASA, strong to gale force wind is expected to affect the Northern seaboard of Northern Luzon and the Eastern seaboards of Central Luzon and Southern Luzon. PAGASA said that the storm will move towards the vicinity of Batanes by Tuesday morning.
Estimated rainfall amount is from 5 - 15 mm per hour (moderate - heavy) within the 500 km diameter of the Tropical Storm. Moderate to rough rainfall expected in Metro Manila.
Update 07:05 UTC
Typhoon Tembin is forecast to make landfall on Taiwan's east coast on Thursday. As of 8 a.m. (local time), the eye of Tembin was located 620 kilometers southeast of Eluanbi, off the southernmost tip of Taiwan, moving at a speed of 8 km per hour in a northerly direction.
Tembin, the 14th storm of the Pacific typhoon season, is likely to move toward Taiwan on a northwesterly track Tuesday.
A sea warning for Tembin is likely to be issued Tuesday morning and areas around Taiwan should be prepared for strong winds and heavy rain Wednesday to Friday, the weather bureau of taiwan warned.
As of 03:00 UTC, Typhoon Tembin was located 300 nm northeast of Manila, Philippines.



Weather forecast by Hongkong Observatory:

Showers are developing over the coastal areas of Guangdong.
At noon, Typhoon Tembin was centred about 690 kilometres southeast of Gaoxiong. It is forecast to move north slowly across the seas east of Luzon.


Discussion
Typhoon (TY) 15w (Tembin), located approximately 300 nm northeast of Manila, Philippines, has tracked northward at 03 knots over the past six hours. Animated multispectral satellite imagery and a 192154z ssmis 91 ghz microwave image indicate that an approximately 20 nm eye has formed over the low-level circulation center (LLCC). The current position is based on the apparent eye with high confidence. The current intensity is based on Dvorak estimates of 65 to 77 knots from rjtd/knes, and pgtw respectively. TY 15w is currently undergoing a rapid intensification period. Upper-level analysis indicates that a self-induced meso-anticyclone has formed over the LLCC and is providing for excellent divergence aloft and weak (05-10 knots) vertical wind shear (vws).

About Typhoon Tembin
Early on August 20, both the JMA and the JTWC upgraded Tembin to a typhoon, as the system rapidly intensified, and developed a clear, well defined eye about 40 kilometers across. The PAGASA also upgraded it to a tropical depression and named it Igme. (Source wikipdeia)
Note that within the Northwestern Pacific Ocean, there are two separate agencies who assign names to tropical cyclones which often results in a cyclone having two names.

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